Where Retail Trading Infrastructure Runs Deepest 2026
On August 2, 2026, the Citi Open and the DC Open are trending as Washington’s tennis tournaments reach their finals weekend — and alongside the match previews, the trending feed carries something more unusual: prediction-market contracts on individual tennis matches, listed by retail brokerage Robinhood. Fans can now trade “set 2 winner” contracts on the same app they use to buy stocks.
Prediction markets are the newest retail financial product to ride existing trading infrastructure. But that infrastructure is not evenly distributed: in some economies, the value of stocks traded each year is many multiples of GDP; in others, trading barely happens at all. This report ranks where the rails for retail trading — and the new products built on them — run deepest.
For an explainer on what the trading activity metric measures, see our guide to where stocks trade most actively.
What the metric measures
The World Bank’s stocks-traded metric captures the total value of shares changing hands on a country’s exchanges over a year, expressed as a percentage of GDP. It is a measure of turnover intensity — how busily a market trades relative to the size of the economy it sits in. Market capitalisation, by contrast, measures the total value of listed companies — the size of the market. Together they describe whether a country has both a big market and an active one.
Neither metric is a projection. The figures below are observed values, each cited with its own data year (mostly 2024, a few lagged). For full details on how these statistics are compiled, see our methodology page.
The Data: where trading runs deepest
The top of the stock trading activity table is dominated by East Asian financial centres and large developed economies. In Hong Kong, the value of stocks traded reached 736.5% of GDP in 2024 — more than seven times the size of the entire economy — powered by its role as the gateway for capital flowing in and out of mainland China:
| Rank | Economy | Stocks traded (% of GDP) | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 of 78 | Hong Kong | 736.5% | 2024 |
| 2 of 78 | China | 186.1% | 2024 |
| 3 of 78 | Japan | 183.3% | 2024 |
| 4 of 78 | South Korea | 166.7% | 2024 |
| 5 of 78 | United States | 148.2% | 2024 |
| 6 of 78 | Canada | 95.8% | 2024 |
| 7 of 78 | India | 85.6% | 2024 |
| 8 of 78 | Switzerland | 76.8% | 2024 |
| 9 of 78 | Turkiye | 70.6% | 2024 |
| 10 of 78 | Thailand | 57.3% | 2024 |
The United States, where Robinhood’s tennis contracts are being offered, ranks fifth at 148.2% — not the most turnover-intensive market, but by far the largest in absolute terms. That combination of size and activity is what makes the US the natural launch market for new retail products. For the size side of the equation, see our ranking of the largest stock markets by capitalization.
Market size: where the money sits
Turnover intensity tells you how busy a market is; capitalisation tells you how big it is. The two don’t always move together. The United States is in a class of its own by market capitalisation:
| Rank | Economy | Market capitalisation | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 of 79 | United States | $68.9 trillion | 2025 |
| 2 of 79 | China | $15.5 trillion | 2025 |
| 3 of 79 | India | $10.6 trillion | 2025 |
| 4 of 79 | Japan | $7.6 trillion | 2025 |
| 5 of 79 | Hong Kong | $6.1 trillion | 2025 |
| 6 of 79 | Canada | $4.6 trillion | 2025 |
| 7 of 79 | United Kingdom | $3.1 trillion | 2022 |
| 8 of 79 | Germany | $2.9 trillion | 2025 |
| 9 of 79 | South Korea | $2.8 trillion | 2025 |
| 10 of 79 | Switzerland | $2.5 trillion | 2025 |
For context on how market size relates to economic depth, see our article on how stock market capitalisation reflects economic depth.
Analysis: what prediction markets need from the rails
Robinhood’s tennis contracts are a small example of a bigger pattern: every new retail financial product — event contracts, tokenised assets, fractional shares — is built on the same underlying infrastructure of market depth, trading activity, and digital payment rails. The data shows where those preconditions are strongest:
- Deep, active markets. A new product needs liquidity to price itself. Hong Kong (736.5% of GDP turnover), China (186.1%), and Japan (183.3%) are the most turnover-intensive markets in the world — the environments where frequent trading is already the norm.
- Large absolute markets. The United States ($68.9 trillion), China ($15.5 trillion), and India ($10.6 trillion) dominate in raw size. A product that succeeds in these markets has a global footprint by definition.
- Digital payment rails. Retail trading ultimately runs on digital payments. Denmark (100% of adults), United Kingdom (99.2%), and the United States (93%) lead the adoption rankings, meaning the wiring for retail finance is nearly universal. For the full picture of who can transact digitally, see our report on the digital payments divide.
Context: from tennis contracts to financial inclusion
It is easy to read prediction markets on tennis as a rich-world curiosity. But the same infrastructure question applies everywhere: can an ordinary adult in your economy make a digital payment, own an account, and reach a market? In India, digital payment adoption reached 48.5% of adults by 2024 — a rapid rise from a low base, even as its stock market grew to the world’s third largest. In Saudi Arabia, adoption hit 75.7% by 2024, and in the United Arab Emirates it stands at 76.6%.
The gap between headline-grabbing products and everyday access remains wide. For the deeper story of who can participate in formal finance, see our article on what digital payment adoption means and our analysis of the state of financial inclusion 2026.
Sources & method
All figures are transcribed from the FinStatGlobe derived datasets. Stocks traded (% of GDP) and market capitalisation come from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators; digital payment adoption comes from the World Bank Global Findex database. Figures are observed values cited with their own data years (2021–2025 depending on indicator and economy) — none are projections. Country links lead to each economy’s statistic pages. For full details on methodology, see our methodology page.